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Economic impacts of the US-China trade war on the asian economy : an applied analysis of IDE-GSM
https://doi.org/10.20561/00050856
https://doi.org/10.20561/00050856c245abd5-4acf-47ea-be1f-802b6022b4a0
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
Full-text PDF (2.5 MB)
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| Item type | アジ研テクニカルレポート / IDE Technical Report(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2019-04-18 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | Economic impacts of the US-China trade war on the asian economy : an applied analysis of IDE-GSM | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
| 資源タイプ | technical report | |||||
| ID登録 | ||||||
| ID登録 | 10.20561/00050856 | |||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
| 著者 |
Kumagai, Satoru
× Kumagai, Satoru× Gokan, Toshitaka× Tsubota, Kenmei× Isono, Ikumo× Hayakawa, Kazunobu |
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| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 熊谷,聡 | ||||||
| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 後閑,利隆 | ||||||
| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 坪田,建明 | ||||||
| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 磯野,生茂 | ||||||
| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 早川,和伸 | ||||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | In this paper, we try to estimate the economic impacts of the US–China trade war that began in 2018. We used IDE-GSM, a computational general equilibrium simulation model, to estimate the economic impacts of a “full-confrontation” scenario wherein both countries impose 25% additional tariffs on all goods imported from each other for three years 2019 onwards. In our calculation, the economic impact for the US is -0.4% and -0.6% for China. Some Asian countries actually benefit from the trade war. As far as it remains bilateral, the trade war is only an issue for the concerned parties. We also ran the US–world trade war scenario, wherein the US and all other countries impose a 25% additional tariff on all goods. The negative impact on the global economy is 1.7%, much greater than the 0.1% impact from the US–China trade war. Thus, it is clear that the world cannot afford to engage in a multilateral trade war. | |||||
| 権利 | ||||||
| 権利情報 | Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア経済研究所 / Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp | |||||
| 収録情報 |
IDE Discussion Paper en : IDE Discussion Paper 巻 760, 発行日 2019-04 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) | |||||
| 著者版フラグ | ||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||
| JEL分類 | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | JEL:C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models | |||||
| JEL分類 | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | JEL:F13 - Trade Policy • International Trade Organizations | |||||
| 地域/国名 | ||||||
| 位置情報（自由記述） | United States | |||||
| 地域/国名 | ||||||
| 位置情報（自由記述） | China | |||||
| キーワード(LSH) | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | US-China trade war | |||||
| キーワード(LSH) | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | IDE-GS | |||||
| キーワード(LSH) | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Trade problem | |||||
| フォーマット | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
| DIG_NO | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | IDP000760_001 | |||||
