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Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement
https://doi.org/10.20561/0002001561
https://doi.org/10.20561/0002001561dcb78384-bc5d-4d3f-a12b-b0a4211ef710
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
Full-text PDF (1.0 MB)
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| Item type | アジ研テクニカルレポート / IDE Technical Report(1) | |||||||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2025-12-31 | |||||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||||
| タイトル | Economic Uncertainty and Extreme Capital Flow Movement | |||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | World | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | United States | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | International capital movement | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Capital transfer | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Economic policy | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Capital flow movement | |||||||||||||
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| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Economic policy uncertainty | |||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Sudden stops | |||||||||||||
| キーワード | ||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | Extreme events | |||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||||||||||
| 資源タイプ | technical report | |||||||||||||
| ID登録 | ||||||||||||||
| ID登録 | 10.20561/0002001561 | |||||||||||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||||||||||
| 著者 |
周,揚
× 周,揚
× 梅﨑,創
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| item_14_description_3 | ||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | The relationship between uncertainty and capital flows has attracted significant attention; however, the specific impact of economic (policy) uncertainty arising from extreme events on extreme capital flow movements remains understudied. This paper examined the effects of global and domestic economic uncertainty on extreme capital flow movement by analyzing a comprehensive dataset encompassing 57 countries on a quarterly basis from 1986 Q1 through 2023 Q4. Our results suggested that (i) in contrast to financial uncertainty, heightened U.S. EPU actually reduces the probability of stops and retrenchment occurrences and this effect is predominantly driven by U.S. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty; (ii) in the post-crisis period, U.S. EPU has gradually superseded financial uncertainty as one of the key drivers of extreme capital movements; (iii) unlike domestic EPU that exerts limited influence on extreme capital flow episodes, we found that elevated domestic WUI shocks reduce the probability of surge occurrences, and this effect is predominantly driven by the pre-crisis period in emerging markets; (iv) while demonstrating effects similar to U.S. EPU, U.S. WUI effects materialize after a twoquarter lag, indicating the presence of a temporal delay in U.S. WUI’s impact. | |||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||
| item_14_rights_5 | ||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||
| 権利情報 | Copyrights 2025 by author(s) | |||||||||||||
| bibliographic_information |
en : IDE Discussion Paper 巻 967, 発行日 2025-03 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||||||||||
| 出版者 | Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) | |||||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||||||
| JEL分類 | ||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | JEL:F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements | |||||||||||||
| JEL分類 | ||||||||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||||||
| 主題 | JEL:G32 - Financing Policy • Financial Risk and Risk Management • Capital and Ownership Structure • Value of Firms • Goodwill | |||||||||||||
| 地域/国名 | ||||||||||||||
| 位置情報（自由記述） | World | |||||||||||||
| 地域/国名 | ||||||||||||||
| 位置情報（自由記述） | United States | |||||||||||||
| フォーマット | ||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||
| item_14_description_23 | ||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | IDP000967_001 | |||||||||||||
