2026-03-12T14:14:41Z https://ir.ide.go.jp/oai

oai:ir.ide.go.jp:02001293 2025-03-06T10:29:04Z 3552:4093:1737028401805

The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade War on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment Dai,Mi JEL:F13 - Trade Policy • International Trade Organizations JEL:F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade JEL:F21 - International Investment • Long-Term Capital Movements China Foreign investments Tariff Outward foreign direct investment China-US trade war Tariffs application/pdf IDP000955_001 This paper examines the impact of the China-U.S. trade war on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) at the firm level. We use newly released data on the number of foreign subsidiaries of publicly listed Chinese firms up to December 2023, and construct firm-level exposure to trade-war tariffs for both outputs and inputs. Our findings indicate that higher U.S.tariffs on Chinese exports and higher Chinese tariffs on U.S. inputs have led to an increase in OFDI by Chinese firms. This effect is particularly pronounced for investments in ASEAN countries and is also evident for investments in Mexico. However, we find no increase in Chinese investment in the U.S. Overall, our results align with recent media reports suggesting that Chinese firms increasingly use third countries, particularly low-wage developing nations, as “bridges” to accessthe U.S. market following the trade war. technical report Institute of Developing Economies　(IDE-JETRO) 2025-03 VoR application/pdf IDE Discussion Paper 955 https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/2001293/files/IDP000955_001.pdf https://doi.org/10.20561/0002001293 http://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001293 https://ir.ide.go.jp/records/2001293 eng China Copyrights 2025 by author(s)