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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/882

タイトル: A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies
著者: Suzuki, Hitoshi
鈴木, 均
キーワード: Iran
Elections
Presidential Election
Opinion Polls
Political Crisis
Issue Date: Mar-2010
出版者: Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
引用: IDE Discussion Paper. No. 231. 2010. 03
抄録: After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/882
Appears in Collections:04.IDE Discussion Paper
02.政治、国際関係(Politics,International Relationship)/中東・北アフリカ(Middle Eastern and North African Studies)

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