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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/829

タイトル: Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces
著者: Hazama, Yasushi
間, 寧
キーワード: Electoral volatility
Economic voting
Panel analysis
Elections
Turkey
Constitutional law
Issue Date: May-2009
出版者: Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
引用: IDE Discussion Paper. No. 202. 2009.5
抄録: Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/829
Appears in Collections:04.IDE Discussion Paper
02.政治、国際関係(Politics,International Relationship)/中東・北アフリカ(Middle Eastern and North African Studies)

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