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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/117

タイトル: Exchange Rate Stabilization and IMF High Interest Rate Policy: A Critical Reconsideration Using a Dynamic Model
著者: Kunimune, Kozo
国宗, 浩三
キーワード: Developing countries
Thailand
IMF
Monetary policy
Foreign exchange
Exchange control
発展途上国
タイ
国際通貨基金
金融政策
外国為替
貿易為替管理
East Asia
東アジア
Issue Date: Sep-1999
出版者: Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO
引用: The Developing Economies 37.3 (1999.9): 337-354
抄録: This paper examines whether the IMF high interest rate policy was suitable for crisis-ridden East Asian economies. Using an "overshoot" model similar to that of Dornbusch's (1976), it shows that this sort of policy might cause an unnecessary deflationary adjusting process and have no effect on containing the real depreciation of exchange rates in the long run. The study also demonstrates that Thai economic data coincides quite well with the model presented here. Finally, it points out that the high interest policy itself might provoke high risk-premium, the existence of which, in turn, justifies the policy. This means that the policy has a self-fulfilling property. In conclusion, a "one-size-fits-all" adaptation of high interest rate policy in a currency crisis is very dangerous in general, and was inappropriate for East Asia. The desirable policy would have been to let currencies depreciate and keep interest rates stable.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2344/117
Appears in Collections:03.The Developing Economies
01.経済、産業(Economy and Industry)/特定地域なし(Non Region-specific Studies)

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