The world appears to be divided into three blocs: the Chinese–Russian bloc, the Western alliance, and the rest of the world that remains neutral in the conflict between the former camps. This study estimates the economic impacts of “decoupling” scenarios on each country and region using a computable general equilibrium (CGE)-type simulation model called the geographical simulation model developed by the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-GSM). Simulation results indicate that 1) the decoupling of Russia will not have a significant impact on the global economy, except i n the mining sector, and 2) if China joins the Russian camp, the impact will be s ignificant on the world economy, especially for Asian countries.
権利
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雑誌名
IDE Discussion Paper
雑誌名(英)
IDE Discussion Paper
巻
874
発行年
2023-01
出版者
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
著者版フラグ
publisher
JEL分類
JEL:E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Application …
JEL:F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
JEL:R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economi …
Simulating the decoupling world under Russia's invasion of Ukraine: an application of IDE-GSM
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