The export-oriented garment industry in Madagascar has displayed robust growth, thus both contributing to the economy and creating formal employment opportunities. However, it experienced a critical situation after the political turmoil that occurred in 2009. Our investigation using the trade data demonstrates that suspension of duty-free access to the US market (AGOA) resulting from the turmoil had a greater impact on exports, 64%–78% reduction, than the turmoil itself. Our original factory-level data demonstrates that AGOA suspension increased the probability of closure by 57.8% for the factories supplying exclusively to US market, and reduced 6405 jobs for low-skilled positions during the post turmoil period. The factory-level adverse impacts are much less than those on export value at the industry level because of the maintained duty-free access to EU, which has provided an alternative market. It suggests that if EU also had cancelled duty-free access, adverse impacts would have been enormous. Given the general pattern of comparative advantage in low-income countries, unplanned cancellation of duty-free access for them hurts labor-intensive industries and low-skilled workers.
権利
Copyrights 日本貿易振興機構（ジェトロ）アジア経済研究所 / Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) http://www.ide.go.jp
雑誌名
IDE Discussion Paper
雑誌名(英)
IDE Discussion Paper
巻
422
発行年
2013-07-01
出版者
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
著者版フラグ
publisher
日本十進分類法
589.2
JEL分類
JEL:D21 - Firm Behavior
JEL:F14 - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
JEL:F16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
JEL:J63 - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
JEL:L67 - Other Consumer Nondurables:
JEL:O55 - Africa
地域/国名
マダガスカル
キーワード(LSH)
Madagascar
Apparel industry
Exports
Politics
Employment
Manufacturing Exports
Garment Industry
Political Crisis
Duty-free Access
Political crisis and suspension of duty-free access in Madagascar : assessment of impacts on the garment industry
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